Decision-Making Techniques
6
Techniques
MCDA, Delphi, Nominal Group, Brainstorm, Fist-of-Five, Decision Tree
EMV
Tree Metric
Decision trees compute Expected Monetary Value
5
Fist Levels
0 blocks, 5 strongly agrees
multiply each outcome by its probability · highest EMV wins
Decision Tree · Build vs Buy
how to read this
- › Squares are your decisions. Circles are chance nodes (probabilities).
- › For each branch, multiply the payoff by the probability. Sum every branch under a chance node to get its EMV.
- › Compare the EMV of each decision. Highest wins — but check variance: a steady $205k can beat a risky $220k.
- › This is how PMs turn gut-feel "should we build or buy?" into a defensible number.
Other Group Techniques
Brainstorm
Open divergent ideas.
Nominal Group
Silent write, then discuss.
Delphi
Anonymous iterative expert poll.
MCDA
Weighted criteria scoring.
Fist-of-5
Consent check (0=block, 5=strong yes).
Exam Traps
Delphi is anonymous
The Delphi technique collects expert opinions anonymously to avoid groupthink and dominance effects. Anonymity is the whole point.
Weighted scoring uses criteria weights
Multi-criteria decision analysis scores each option against weighted criteria. The highest weighted score wins.
Decision trees quantify uncertainty
Branches represent decisions and chance events. EMV is the weighted payoff of each path.
Delphi kills groupthink
Anonymous input from experts. Iteratively refined. Great for politically charged decisions.
Fist-of-five is not voting
It is a consent check. If anyone shows 0 or 1, discuss further before proceeding.
Throw out every restaurant idea. No judgment.
Rate each option on food, price, and distance. Multiply by weights. Highest total wins.
Everyone shows 0 to 5. Zero means veto. Under 3 needs discussion.
If Restaurant A is busy there is a 30% chance of wait. EMV of each option helps choose.
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