EVM Interpretation and Forecasting
3
EAC Variants
Typical, atypical, and combined
TCPI
Recovery Index
What CPI the team must hit on remaining work
S
Curve Shape
Cost curve rises slowly, peaks, then flattens
same "today" · three possible finish-line forecasts
Three EAC Paths
Typical · BAC / CPI
Current cost performance will continue. The default. Use when nothing suggests change.
Atypical · AC + (BAC − EV)
The variance was a one-time event. Remaining work will hit original rate. Use when you know the cause and it's resolved.
Combined · AC + (BAC − EV) / (CPI × SPI)
Both cost AND schedule problems will keep hurting you. Worst case forecast. Use when both indices are below 1.0.
how to read this
- › The dashed line is PV — the original plan up to BAC.
- › At "today" the green (EV) and amber (AC) tell you where you really are. EV is below AC, so you're over budget.
- › Three different finish lines depending on which EAC formula matches the reality of your variance.
- › Read the exam question carefully — it tells you which variant applies with phrases like "assume current performance continues" (→ #1) or "atypical variance" (→ #2).
Exam Traps
Match EAC variant to the question
Typical = BAC/CPI. Atypical = AC + (BAC − EV). Combined = AC + (BAC − EV)/(CPI × SPI). Read the condition carefully.
TCPI well above 1.0 is unrealistic
A TCPI of 1.25 means the team must be 25% more efficient on remaining work. At some point, replanning beats trying harder.
S-curves visualize planned vs actual spend
The S-curve shows PV, EV, and AC over time. Gaps between lines are variance. The exam tests chart interpretation.
Default EAC is BAC/CPI
Use it unless the question says "atypical" or "one-time." Then switch to AC + (BAC − EV).
High TCPI = replan
If TCPI demands miracles, stop trying harder and start replanning.
If the rest of the trip costs like the first leg, total cost = BAC/CPI. Use when cost performance is consistent.
The cost overrun was a one-time thing. Remaining work will be back on budget. Use AC + (BAC − EV).
Schedule and cost are both off. Both matter. Use AC + (BAC − EV)/(CPI × SPI).
If TCPI says the team needs to triple efficiency, do not believe it. Replan.
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